With the U.S. tied up in Iraq, and the general opinion being
against the White Houses ill-conceived policies hopefully the message will be
clear that there is no great Axis of Evil in existence.
South Korea continues to grow in the quality of its
deployment of robotics in manufacturing and is well positioned in a global
economy to be a powerhouse. However, it does have a number of issues to deal
with, not in the least the fact that there is a very human element to being a
part of a larger “nation divided” with many families having being split since
the 1950’s. Additionally, the South
Korean government does need to improve its relationships with its own people.
It shouldn’t take a video being posted on the Internet of a distressed wife
calling an indifferent bureaucrat for help to get the government to do
something (see The Economist Jan 13th article for more information) after her husband was kidnapped by people from North Korea.
I made the statement that North Korea effectively is a
tin-pot dictatorship and country that can be well contained and managed. I stated that China holds the key to keeping
Korea in check, and frankly it finally looks like Japan is also stepping up to
do its piece in the effort of containing through cash-flow restriction. Much of
the cash the keeps Kim Jong Il’s bankrupt regime in business stems from the
600,000 ethnic Koreans in Japan. Japanese authorities have watched helplessly
as the cash flowing from pachinko parlors has gushed off-shore.
This will finally stop as the Japanese government moved to
block the transfer of funds to North Korea. Restricting cash flow through
better proof of identity on suspicious transactions and modifying to ATM
machines to not accept large cash deposits.
In addition Japan has banned North Korean vessels from its
ports and tightened export controls. Koreans wishing to travel to North Korea
as no longer able to use ferry’s and must fly to China and then from China to
North Korea greatly increasing the cost of doing so.
Going back to my original point of the human toll we must
feel for the North Koreans who are living under a proud and dictator intent on
bankrupting his country. One can easily see that the effect of shutting down
this flow of money hurts the general population as well as the dictatorship.
However, for now the model of careful restriction of their cash flow is the
best containment strategy until the day comes (which is inevitable) that North
and South Korea can be united again.
The remaining concern (which is very valid) is that North
Korea may try to sell technology from its fledgling nuclear program to raise
money. The threat of this technology getting into the hands of Islamic extremists
is much greater concern than North Korea using this technology itself.
But even then I think that these must be considered as
two separate issues, an iron fist in a velvet glove still seems to be the best
approach with North Korea with a focus on cash flow restriction. Asia doesn’t
want a problem with North Korea and soliciting the help of S. Korea, China and
Japan to jointly develop and implement policy around this containment strategy
is clearly the best path moving forward.